[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 January 20 issued 2343 UT on 14 Jan 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 15 10:43:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 14Jan. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind
speed (Vsw) was ~350km/s at 00UT and gradually declined to reach
287km/s at 1324UT. Vsw has since increased to be 308km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied in the range +3nT and -4nT. An increase in the solar wind
speed from current ambient conditions to slightly elevated levels
is possible over the next 24 hours due to the influence of a
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Cocos Island 1 01100100
Darwin 2 21000101
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 1 10110101
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Gingin 1 11010100
Canberra 1 01110001
Hobart 1 01110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01020000
Casey 10 34331111
Mawson 6 32221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 6 Quiet
17 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels over the Australian
region for 14Jan with Unsettled to Quiet conditions for Antarctic
regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be range
between Quiet to Unsettled levels for 15Jan with a only slight
chance of isolated Active periods. An increase in the solar wind
speed is possible over the next 24 hours due to the effects of
the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole which however on
this rotation, appears to be smaller and thus is expected to
have a weaker influence than previous rotations. Quiet conditions
expected for 16Jan-17Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mostly normal for 14Jan
with observed enhancements for northern hemisphere and depressed
periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed ionospheric
support on 15Jan for high latitudes due to an increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to slightly depressed for Equatorial and Southern
AUS/NZ regions for 14Jan. MUFs near predicted monthly values
for other regions. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days with possible mildly depressed MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 33600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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