[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 20 issued 2337 UT on 03 Jan 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 4 10:37:00 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 03 January. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region, AR2755, visible on 
the solar disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto 
the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 04-06 January. During 
UT day 03 January, the solar wind speed gradually increased, 
reaching a maximum of 420 km/s at 03/2124 UT. The total IMF (Bt) 
reached a maximum around 10 nT at 03/0650 UT and is currently 
varying between 2-8 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, 
reached a minimum of -7.8 nT at 03/0649 UT and is currently varying 
between +/-7 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at light 
to moderate levels on UT days 04-05 January, then it may become 
moderately enhanced on UT day 06 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12321112
      Cocos Island         4   12221111
      Darwin               6   12321112
      Townsville           6   12321122
      Learmonth            7   12331122
      Alice Springs        6   12321112
      Gingin               6   12321112
      Canberra             5   02321112
      Hobart               7   12331112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   01241001
      Casey               21   35542223
      Mawson              11   22323224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     6    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan     4    Quiet
06 Jan     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 03 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region 
observed Quiet to Active conditions, with an isolated Minor Storm 
period observed at Casey. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 04 January, returning to 
Quiet levels on 05 January. Geomagnetic activity may increase 
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 06 January due to possible moderate 
enhancements in the solar wind.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days, 
04-06 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
05 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
06 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 03 January. 
Minor to Moderate depressions were observed during the local 
night in the Cocos Island and Niue Island regions. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were seen over some Australian ionosonde sites. In 
the Australian region, MUFs are expected to remain near predicted 
monthly values with the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions 
for the next three UT days, 04-06 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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