[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 31 Dec 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 1 10:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 31 December. 
There are currently no sunspots visible from the earth side. 
No earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 01-03 January. During UT day 31 December, 
the solar wind speed was at its background levels, varying in 
the range 290-315 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
3 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied 
between +6/-4 nT. Bz stayed predominantly southwards after around 
0200 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near 
its background levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 January 
with the possibility of slight rises on 01 January due to the 
effects of a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111121
      Cocos Island         2   12111010
      Darwin               3   22101111
      Townsville           5   23111121
      Learmonth            4   22111021
      Alice Springs        4   22111021
      Gingin               3   22011021
      Canberra             2   12001111
      Hobart               3   12111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
      Casey               12   44321221
      Mawson               7   23111123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
02 Jan     4    Quiet
03 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 31 December, geomagnetic activity was at quiet 
levels in the Australian regions and quiet to unsettled with 
isolated active periods in the Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next 
three UT days, 01-03 January with the possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods on UT day 01 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near 
predicted monthly to moderated depressed level on UT day 31 December. 
Nearly similar MUF conditions may be expected for the next three 
UT days, 01-03 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Jan   -22    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
03 Jan   -22    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near 
predicted monthly to moderated depressed levels for the Australian 
region on UT day 31 December. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen 
over most Australian ionosonde sites. Nearly similar MUF conditions 
may be expected for the next three UT days, 01-03 January in 
the Australian regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    18700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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