[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 29 10:31:21 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 28 February.
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Through
UT day 28 February, the solar wind speed ranged between 320 to
370 km/s by mid-day and then showed a gradual increase to 460
km/s by 2300 UT. The total IMF (Bt) stayed relatively stable
between 2 nT and 4 nT by 0700 UT and then showed fluctuations
between 4 nT and 8 nT during the rest of the day. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) stayed predominantly southwards up to around
-3 nT until 0700 UT and then showed fluctuations in the range
+7/-6 nT. Solar wind parameters may stay enhanced during UT days
29 February to 2 March due to the effects of patchy coronal holes.
Very Low levels of solar activity are forecast for the next three
days, 29 February to 2 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 10112212
Cocos Island 2 001-1112
Darwin 4 10112212
Townsville 5 10222212
Learmonth 5 10122222
Alice Springs 3 00112212
Gingin 3 20111112
Canberra 3 01211112
Hobart 4 11221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 00110102
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 20 44212216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1001 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Feb 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
01 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
02 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day, 28 February. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions with isolated active periods were observed at high
southern hemisphere latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods for the next three UT days, 29 February to 2 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 28 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor depressions and also mild to moderate enhancements. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with
minor to mild depressions for UT days 29 February to 2 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
regions for UT day 28 February were mostly near predicted monthly
values with some periods of minor depressions and also mild to
moderate enhancements. MUFs in this region are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values with minor to mild depressions
for UT days 29 February to 2 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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