[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 14 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 13 February.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very Low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
14-16 February. A fragmented filament structure located in the
SE quadrant was observed lifting off in GONG H-alpha imagery
after 13/0326UT. No CME signature was detected in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 13/0736 UT. No other Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 13 February, the solar wind speed was at nominal levels,
under 380 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-4 nT and
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) mainly between +/-2
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at background to slightly
enhanced levels for the next three days, 14-16 February due to
weak coronal holes effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 10110010
Darwin 1 01100011
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 2 11101011
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Gingin 1 10100011
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23321011
Mawson 7 21121114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1101 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 5 Quiet
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 13 February were at
Quiet levels for the Australian region with Antarctic regions
experiencing Quiet to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly Quiet for 14-15 February, but
may increase to Unsettled levels, with a slight chance of isolated
Active periods, in the later half of 15 February or on 16 February
if the solar wind becomes enhanced due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 14-16 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 13 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed in the
Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed at some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next three days, 14-16 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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