[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 12 10:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 11 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 12-14 February. As predicted, solar wind observed a
weak enhancement early UT day in response to solar wind stream
from a weak positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed
reached 480 Km/s at 11/0230UT, the total IMF (Bt) was around
6 nT early UT day and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
reached -5 nT at 11/0013 UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next
three days, 12-14 February due to coronal holes effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 22100011
Cocos Island 2 22000010
Darwin 2 22100010
Townsville 3 32100011
Learmonth 4 32100012
Alice Springs 2 22100011
Gingin 3 32100011
Canberra 1 12100000
Hobart 4 23201000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 22100000
Casey 13 35421012
Mawson 15 44212115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1121 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 11 February were at
Quiet to Unsettled levels for the Australian region. Isolated
Unsettled periods observed early UT day in response to minor
increase in the solar wind speed. Antarctic regions observed
isolated Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next
three days, 12-14 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 11 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three
days, 12-14 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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