[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Feb 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 9 10:31:14 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 08 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 09-11 February. During UT day 08 February, the solar
wind speed declined from 550 km/s to 450 km/s in response to
the waning effects of a southern hemisphere coronal hole. The
total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +3 nT and -3 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline towards its
nominal levels today (UT day 09 February). Mostly nominal solar
wind conditions are expected on UT day 10 February. From late
UT 10 February or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to enhance
again in response to another coronal hole (northern hemisphere
with extensions into the equatorial region) reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21102121
Cocos Island 2 11101110
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 4 11112122
Learmonth 4 21112112
Alice Springs 3 21102120
Gingin 4 21102122
Canberra 3 11002121
Hobart 4 12102121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 11112110
Casey 15 44432222
Mawson 19 42322345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3321 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 7 Quiet
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 8 February were at
quiet level for the Australian region. Antarctic regions experienced
mainly quiet to active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels and at times reaching
unsettled level on UT day 09 February due to the waning effects
of the current coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be initially quiet levels and then may reach unsettled to
active level from late UT day 10 February in response to another
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for
UT day 08 February with enhancements for both northern and southern
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods mostly for southern
hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for the next three
UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 08 February
were mainly mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values
for Equatorial and Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed at some sites. Near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected for UT days 09-11 February with a possibility of minor
to mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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