[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 20 issued 2343 UT on 02 Feb 2020

Mon Feb 3 10:43:40 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 02Feb. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery and region 
2757 has rotated beyond the west limb leaving the visible disc 
with no numbered regions. Solar wind speed (Vsw) gradually declined 
from 453km/s at 00UT to be 376km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3nT 
and -4nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
at ambient levels for the next 3 days. Very low levels of solar 
activity are expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11100221
      Cocos Island         2   20100120
      Darwin               3   11100221
      Townsville           4   11111221
      Learmonth            3   21100221
      Alice Springs        2   10100122
      Gingin               2   20100121
      Canberra             2   11100121
      Hobart               3   11100221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   10000120
      Casey               14   34422232
      Mawson              28   52222564

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb     6    Quiet
04 Feb     6    Quiet
05 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for 02Feb were Quiet for the 
Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing Unsettled 
conditions with isolated Active periods. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly Quiet for 03Feb-05Feb with mostly Unsettled 
to possible Active conditions for Antarctic regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions observed for 02Feb 
with enhancements for both northern and southern hemisphere as 
well as depressed periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Feb    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for 02Feb were at 
either near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced for 
Equatorial regions. Minor MUFs depressions observed at Equatorial 
stations during local day. Notable Sporadic-E occurrences observed 
at Southern AUS/NZ sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    98200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.