[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 20 issued 2348 UT on 31 Jan 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 1 10:48:17 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 31Jan. There is currently 
one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar disc located at 
N03W65 and it has remained quiet and stable over the last 24 
hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed (Vsw) was ~450km/s at 00UT 
and gradually increased to reach a maximum of 557km/s at 0933UT 
and has since declined to be 445km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range 
+4nT and -6nT during the first half of the UT day and has since 
declined in magnitude to fluctuate between +/-2nT. A return to 
nominal solar wind speeds is expected over the next 24 hours, 
with recent elevated Vsw due to the influence of a high speed 
solar wind stream from negative polarity coronal hole that is 
no longer visible on the solar disc. Very low levels of solar 
activity are expected for the next three days. ACE EPAM data 
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 31/1705UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23122001
      Cocos Island         2   12121000
      Darwin               4   22122001
      Townsville           5   23122011
      Learmonth            5   23122001
      Alice Springs        3   22122000
      Gingin               5   23122001
      Canberra             4   13222000
      Hobart               6   23232001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   13132000
      Casey               16   35432212
      Mawson              17   45322214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1221 2422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb     7    Quiet
03 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for 31Jan were Quiet to Unsettled 
for the Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing 
Active to Unsettled conditions. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be Unsettled to Quiet for 01Feb with possible isolated Active 
periods for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions expected 
for 02Feb-03Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions observed for 31Jan 
with enhancements for both northern and southern hemisphere as 
well as depressed periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for 31Jan were at 
either near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced for 
Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. Minor MUFs depressions observed 
at Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences 
observed at Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ sites. Similar levels 
of ionospheric support are expected for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    87700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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