[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 6 10:31:37 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 05 December with several
B-class flares and three low level C-class flares from regions
2790(S23E12) and 2786(S19W76). Region 2786 decreased somehow
in area and is nearing the west limb while region 2790 remained
relatively stable with a beta magnetic complexity. New region
2791(S17E51) has rotated on the visible disk over the period,
it is of simple magnetic complexity. Several active filaments
in the southern hemisphere are monitored for any eruption. No
Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three UT days,
06-08 December with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
On UT day 05 December,the solar wind speed varied between 340-420
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2-7 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-5 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal levels
for the next three UT days, 06-08 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 10112121
Cocos Island 2 00012120
Darwin 4 11012122
Townsville 5 21112122
Learmonth 5 10123221
Alice Springs 3 00112122
Gingin 4 10122121
Canberra 4 00212122
Hobart 4 01212121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 00111021
Casey 16 34433232
Mawson 9 11223242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and quiet to active conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region on 05 December. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for
the next three days, 06-08 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 06-08 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly enhanced to
near predicted monthly values during UT day 05 December. Sporadic
E blanketing was observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian
regions are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 06-08 December with a slight chance
of a shortwave fadeout.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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