[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 1 10:31:41 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 30 November.
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate level for
the next three UT days, 01 to 03 December with a good chance
of more C-class flares and some chance of M-class flares. Through
UT day 30 November, the solar wind speed increased from 380 km/s
to around 550 k/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied in the ranges 1
to 12 nT, its north-south component (Bz) in the range +7/-10
nT and the solar wind particle density in the range of 3 to 16
ppcc. Solar wind speed is expected to show a gradual decline
through UT day 01 December and stay at nominal levels through
UT days 02 and 03 December. However, there is a small possibility
for the CME of 29 November to give a weak glancing blow to the
earth late on 01 or early on 02 December and possibly slightly
strengthen the solar wind stream for a short time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22432101
Cocos Island 6 22331100
Darwin 9 22432111
Townsville 9 22432111
Learmonth 9 22432102
Alice Springs 8 22432101
Gingin 8 22432101
Canberra 7 22431001
Hobart 8 13431101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 23341001
Casey 28 36642222
Mawson 13 34331223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 0122 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 12 Quiet to active
02 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and the Antarctic region on UT day 30 November,
along with 2 major storm periods recorded on one Antarctic station.
Mostly quiet to active conditions are expected for UT day 01
and 02 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected
on UT day 03 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly to mildly depressed
levels during UT day 30 November. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced levels for the next
three UT days, 01 - 03 December. Shortwave fadeouts are possible
over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 8 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 29
November and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. MUFs in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly to mildly depressed
levels during UT day 30 November. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 01 - 03 December. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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