[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 20 issued 2332 UT on 25 Apr 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 26 09:32:58 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 25 April. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 26-28 April. The visible disc has one numbered sunspot 
region, AR 2760, and there are no returning regions expected. 
No Earth bound CMEs were observed in available LASCO and STEREO 
images. During UT day 25 April, the solar wind speed varied between 
370 to 450 km/s, and is currently around 380 km/s The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 1-7 nT early in the UT day, then steadied 
and is currently varying between 3-4 nT. The north-south IMF 
component (Bz) varied between -5 to 4 nT at the start of the 
UT day, then became mainly northward between -1 to 3 nT. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to stay mostly at nominal values 
for the next three UT days, 26-28 April, with the possibility 
of occasional slight strengthenings due to weak coronal hole 
influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22200000
      Cocos Island         2   12200000
      Darwin               2   22100001
      Townsville           2   21200101
      Learmonth            2   22200000
      Alice Springs        2   21200001
      Gingin               2   22200000
      Canberra             1   21100000
      Hobart               2   21211000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   11210000
      Casey                4   33200000
      Mawson              11   34314200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2010 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
27 Apr     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
28 Apr     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods

COMMENT: On UT day 25 April, the geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region stayed at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region 
observed mainly Quiet levels, with some Unsettled to Active periods. 
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at mainly 
Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 26-28 April, with a 
chance of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole 
influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day, 25 April. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three UT days, 26-28 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
for the Australian region on UT day, 25 April. Sporadic E was 
observed over some sites. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT days, 
26-28 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    54900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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