[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 20 09:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 19 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days, 20-22 April. The visible disc has been spotless and there
are no returning regions expected. No CME was associated with
the filament event reported yesterday and no Earth bound CMEs
observed in available LASCO and STEREO images. The solar wind
has been undisturbed with wind speed below 335 km/s, total IMF
(Bt) range 1 nT to 4 nT, and a north-south IMF component (Bz)
range of -3 nT to +2 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to
be mostly near background levels at first with a modest increase
in activity in the latter part of 20 April due to a lower latitude
coronal hole high speed stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11001001
Learmonth 1 11100100
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Gingin 1 01000110
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 12201100
Mawson 4 11101132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 11 Unsettled
21 Apr 12 Unsettled
22 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to isolated active periods expected in latter
part of 20 and 21 April due to coronal hole high speed stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradations in conditions on 19 April. Mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three
UT days, 20-22 Apr. Mild degradations possible on 21 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 135% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during daytime.
Very weak F region at night.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 19 Apr. Hobart ionosphere
very weak 16-20 UT. Sporadic-E was observed at Cocos 13-23 UT,
Brisbane and Norfolk 00-03, 19-23 UT, Learmonth 10-18 UT, Sydney
12-17, 20-23 UT. Spread F observed at Townsville and Brisbane
13-18 UT, Learmonth 19-22 UT. MUFs in the Australian regions
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three days, 20 to 22 Apr with possible mild depressions
in MUFs on 21 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 19600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list