[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 20 09:31:23 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 19 April. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days, 20-22 April. The visible disc has been spotless and there 
are no returning regions expected. No CME was associated with 
the filament event reported yesterday and no Earth bound CMEs 
observed in available LASCO and STEREO images. The solar wind 
has been undisturbed with wind speed below 335 km/s, total IMF 
(Bt) range 1 nT to 4 nT, and a north-south IMF component (Bz) 
range of -3 nT to +2 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to 
be mostly near background levels at first with a modest increase 
in activity in the latter part of 20 April due to a lower latitude 
coronal hole high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11001001
      Learmonth            1   11100100
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Gingin               1   01000110
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   10001101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                2   12201100
      Mawson               4   11101132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2211 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr    11    Unsettled
21 Apr    12    Unsettled
22 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Unsettled to isolated active periods expected in latter 
part of 20 and 21 April due to coronal hole high speed stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some degradations in conditions on 19 April. Mostly 
normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three 
UT days, 20-22 Apr. Mild degradations possible on 21 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 135% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values during daytime.
      Very weak F region at night.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements 
for the Australian region on UT day, 19 Apr. Hobart ionosphere 
very weak 16-20 UT. Sporadic-E was observed at Cocos 13-23 UT, 
Brisbane and Norfolk 00-03, 19-23 UT, Learmonth 10-18 UT, Sydney 
12-17, 20-23 UT. Spread F observed at Townsville and Brisbane 
13-18 UT, Learmonth 19-22 UT. MUFs in the Australian regions 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next three days, 20 to 22 Apr with possible mild depressions 
in MUFs on 21 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    19600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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