[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 11 09:31:22 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 10 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied in the range 350
km/s to 400 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt)
varied between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied mostly in the range
+4/-4 nT. The solar wind particle density varied in the range
of 2 to 6 ppcc through this time. Some enhancements in solar
wind parameters may be expected on UT day 11 and 12 April due
to coronal hole effects. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 01111211
Darwin 4 11211202
Townsville 4 11211211
Learmonth 4 11111310
Alice Springs 3 00111301
Gingin 3 00111310
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 4 01121310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00120210
Casey 7 13311311
Mawson 13 32212344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2011 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 5 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region stayed
mostly at quiet levels with some unsettled periods through UT
day, 10 April. Geomagnetic activity in the Antarctic region stayed
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with some active periods
through this day. The global geomagnetic activity may vary from
quiet to active levels through UT day, 11 April, quiet to unsettled
through 12 April and mostly quiet through 13 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
on UT day, 10 April. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also recorded at some low latitude locations. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions may be observed on UT day, 11 April. MUFs are
expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values on
UT days 12 and 13 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr -8 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 10 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also recorded in the Northern Australian
regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed on
UT day, 11 April. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values on UT days 12 and 13 April in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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