[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 April 20 issued 2340 UT on 08 Apr 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 9 09:40:05 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 08 Apr. There are currently
no sunspot regions on the visible disk, however there is a plage
(Ex region 2579) in the NW quadrant. Very Low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three days, 09-11 Apr. A small
filament structure located in the NW quadrant was observed lifting
off in GONG H-alpha imagery after 08/0248UT. No CME signature
was detected in the available coronagraph imagery. During the
last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was slightly elevated, increasing
from 320 km/s to 500 km/s, currently near 450 km/s. The total
interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 12
nT and the north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) varied in the range +/- 6 nT nT with a southward excursion
up to -9 nT early UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain slightly enhanced during 09-10 Apr with further enhancement
on 11 Apr, due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 12233322
Darwin 8 12233212
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 14 22234423
Alice Springs 9 12133322
Gingin 12 11224423
Canberra 5 01123212
Hobart 11 12234322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 23 12356421
Casey 18 44433323
Mawson 32 35343536
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0000 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
for the Australian region on UT day 08 Apr. The Antarctic region
observed some isolated Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled for 09-11 Apr with
possible Active levels due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days, 09-11 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 130% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced for the Australian region
on 08 Apr. Strong MUFs enhancements observed at Cocos Island
region local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for
the next three days, 09-11 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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