[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 4 10:31:25 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 03 Apr. There is currently 
one numbered region on the visible disc, region 2759 located 
at N28E17 which has remained quiet and relatively unchanged over 
the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
for the next three days (04-06 Apr).No earth-directed CMEs observed 
in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 400 km/s and 450 km/s during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed at the time of this report was 430km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -7 nt to +3 nT. Solar wind 
speed is expected to return to nominal levels today (04 Apr). 
The solar wind speed are expected to remain at nominal levels 
on UT day 05-06 Apr. Some mild enhancement in solar wind speed 
are possible on 05 Apr due to the influence of a small equatorial 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22011312
      Cocos Island         4   21011212
      Darwin               5   22011311
      Townsville           5   12011322
      Learmonth            6   22011322
      Alice Springs        4   12001312
      Gingin               5   22001322
      Canberra             2   11000211
      Hobart               4   12001312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   01011311
      Casey               11   34221223
      Mawson              33   54222366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2221 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr     5    Quiet
05 Apr     7    Quiet
06 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed for 
the Australian region on UT day 03 Apr. The Antarctic sites observed 
quiet to minor storm levels. Mostly quiet conditions expected 
for the Australian region over the next 3 days UT days (04-06 
Apr). There chance of isolated unsettled periods for 05 Apr due 
to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 04-06 Apr. Mild degradation may happen 
in high-latitude regions on 06 Apr due to possible increase in 
geomagnetic activity on 05 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to mildly enhanced level over most Australian 
sites. Mild MUFs depressions were observed in Northern Australian 
region during local day. Sporadic E observed at some Australian 
stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next three UT days, 04-06 Apr, for the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    83900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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