[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Sep 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 16 09:31:36 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 15 September 
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar 
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 16-18 September. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. During UT day 15 September, the solar wind speed varied 
in the range 410-470 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 
4 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range +4/-4 nT. During the next two UT days, 16-17 September, 
the solar wind speed is expected to vary between its nominal 
and moderately elevated levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221122
      Cocos Island         5   12111222
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            6   22221222
      Alice Springs        5   12221122
      Gingin               8   22221233
      Canberra             5   12220122
      Launceston           6   22221122
      Hobart               4   12120122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   11230001
      Casey               11   33331232
      Mawson              29   23333266

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1221 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded 
in the Australian region on UT day 15 September. Mostly quiet 
to unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels 
during the next three UT days, 16-18 September. Occasional unsettled 
conditions are possible in response to elevated solar wind speed.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for UT days 16-18 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
15 September. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in 
Southern Australian region during local night. Minor depressions 
were recorded in Northern Australian region during local day. 
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. 
For the next three UT days, 16-18 September, MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    67400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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