[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 15 10:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
15-17 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed was at background levels
between 320 Km/s and 360 km/s but slightly increasing. The total
IMF Bt varied between 3 to 8 nT. The north-south component of
IMF Bz varied between +/- 5 nT with a more disturbed period between
1200UT-1600UT. During the next three UT days, 15-17 October,
the solar wind speed is expected to be at nominal levels although
a slight enhancement may be observed today, 15 October due to
weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11223221
Darwin 4 10222211
Townsville 6 11223221
Learmonth 6 12222221
Alice Springs 5 11222221
Gingin 5 11112231
Canberra 5 10123220
Launceston 8 -1223321
Hobart 5 11113310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 00103300
Casey 9 23312232
Mawson 18 41212263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 14 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic
region, geomagnetic activity varied mostly from Quiet to Active
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 15-17 October with
a chance of Unsettled periods today, 15 October due to possible
weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 14 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Cocos Island region observed minor to moderate MUFs depressions
during the local day and night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 15-17
October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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