[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 November 19 issued 2354 UT on 15 Nov 2019

Sat Nov 16 10:55:00 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 15 November. There are 
currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speed was at nominal levels ranging from 314km/s to 
360km/s between 00UT-17UT. Solar wind speed has increased slightly 
reaching a maximum of 395km/s at 2234UT and is currently 370km/s 
at the time of this report. The north south component of the 
IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-2 nT between 00UT-17UT and increased 
slightly reaching -4nT at 1834UT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to increase towards the end of the UT day 16Nov due to the influence 
of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative-polarity 
coronal hole that crossed the central meridian 13Nov. Very low 
solar activity is expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111122
      Cocos Island         1   11000110
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           4   11111222
      Learmonth            4   11111222
      Alice Springs        3   10011122
      Gingin               2   10010122
      Canberra             0   00000110
      Hobart               3   10111112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   00000111
      Casey                6   22221122
      Mawson               6   21121231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   2100 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly Quiet levels for 
the Australian region with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 
Antarctic regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
for 16Nov with possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 17Nov and mostly Quiet conditions 
expected for 18Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions for 15Nov ranged from mild enhancements 
to moderate MUF depressions that were observed mostly in the 
Southern hemisphere at mid latitudes during local day and in 
the Equatorial regions during local night. Similar variable HF 
conditions are expected over the next three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Nov   -36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the AUS/NZ region 
for 15Nov with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging between 
near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed. Similar 
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three 
days, with continued moderate depressed periods for Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS and NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    30200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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