[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 13 10:31:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 12 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 13-15
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 12 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 300-370
km/s. The total IMF Bt was mostly enhanced, ranging between 5
nT and 12 nT. The north-south component of the IMF Bz was positive,
varying between +3 nT and +10 nT. Both the solar wind speed and
total IMF Bt were gradually decreasing on average. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background level
over the next 3 UT days, 13-15 November. Moderate enhancements
in the solar wind speed are also possible due to small patchy
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21212210
Cocos Island 4 22212200
Darwin 4 21212210
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 6 21222311
Alice Springs 4 21212201
Gingin 3 21112200
Canberra 4 21212210
Hobart 4 11212210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 6 32212210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 0112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 5 Quiet
14 Nov 5 Quiet
15 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 12 November, geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet levels in the Australian region and at quiet to active
levels in the Antarctic region. The three day outlook (UT days
13-15 November) is for the global geomagnetic activity to be
mostly at quiet levels and at times it may increase to unsettled
levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
Southern hemisphere and in the equatorial regions, mostly during
local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the next three UT days, 13-15 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
14 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
15 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed over
the Australian region during UT day 12 November. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) varied between near predicted monthly values
to mildly and moderately depressed ones. Mild to moderate enhancements
were occasionally observed at local night. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over all the sites. For the next three UT days, 13-15
November, mildly depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 21800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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