[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 31 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 1 10:31:38 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 31 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days (01 - 03
November). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 31 October the solar wind
speed was mostly steady near 400 km/s. These mildly elevated
solar wind was in response to small patchy coronal holes. The
total IMF Bt varied between 2 nT to 18 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF Bz varied between -2 nT to +18 nT. The two
day outlook (UT day 01-02 November) is for solar wind to remain
between its nominal to mildly elevated levels in response to
the coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 31120111
Cocos Island 3 31120100
Darwin 6 41120111
Townsville 6 41120121
Learmonth 6 41120211
Alice Springs 4 31120101
Canberra 5 31120121
Hobart 4 30120121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 20010010
Casey 14 53322222
Mawson 25 33111166
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1222 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ region
was mostly at quiet to unsettled level on UT day 31 October.
In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic activity varied from
quiet to active levels. The disturbed geomagnetic conditions
in high latitude regions are in response to mildly elevated solar
wind speed associated with patchy small coronal holes. Mostly
quiet and at times unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected
for next three UT days (01-03 November).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed through
UT day 31 October. Minor to mild MUF depressions, especially
in mid- to high- latitude regions, may be expected through UT
days 01-02 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values
during UT day 31 October. The depressions are thought to be due
to very low level of solar ionising flux. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT
days, 01-03 November, MUFs are expected to be between moderately
depressed to near predicted monthly values. Lower HF frequencies
will be less impacted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 13.4 p/cc Temp: 18800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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