[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 30 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 29 May. There
is currently one small sunspot group on the visible solar disk.
There were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. Very Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 30 May to 1 June. During
the UT day 29 May, the solar wind speed has increased from 460
km/s to 560 km/s due to arrival of a high speed solar wind stream
from the recurrent coronal hole. Currently the solar wind speed
is near 540 km/s. The IMF Btotal varied in the range 3-10 nT.
There was one notable period of negative Bz, 0050-0520 UT, when
Bz reached -9 nT. On UT day 30 May the solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated for the most of the day; however, by the end
of the day it may return to its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 10 33332221
Cocos Island 7 22321221
Darwin 9 33331111
Townsville 10 33332122
Learmonth 11 33332222
Alice Springs 10 33332121
Culgoora 9 33331111
Gingin 10 32331232
Canberra 9 33331111
Launceston 14 33442222
Hobart 10 23342211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 18 23553211
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 44 56443465
Davis 35 33433275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1122 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 29 May. Quiet
to Severe Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next
3 UT days, 30 May to 1 June, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, although isolated
active periods are possible on 30 May, when the solar wind speed
is expected to be elevated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours in the Southern hemisphere
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values and mildly enhanced. Variable ionospheric support
was observed in the Northern Hemisphere with mild to moderate
depressions mostly at high latitudes to occasional enhancements
across all latitudes. Variable HF conditions are expected for
30 May. For the Northern hemisphere, mildly to moderately depressed
MUFs are likely for mid to high latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere,
near predicted monthly MUFs and mildly depressed ones are expected
with disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Occasional
enhancements are possible across all latitudes, mostly during
local night.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 May -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Jun -7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for
Australian regions and Antarctica. Variable conditions with mild
enhancements and depressions were observed in Northern Australian
region. Notable periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions over the UT day. For 30-31 May, MUFs are expected to
range mostly from near predicted monthly levels to mildly depressed
ones; the depressions are a consequence of the recent increase
in geomagnetic activity. Mostly near predicted monthly levels
are expected for 1 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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