[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 May 19 issued 2352 UT on 21 May 2019

Wed May 22 09:52:24 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 21May. The sun is currently 
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
There were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery, however a notable feature 
is visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 0848UT onwards indicating 
a possible back-side event directed to the south west. Solar 
wind speed was 392km/s at 00UT and reached a maximum of 449km/s 
at 0822UT before gradually declining to be 356km/s at the time 
fo this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +2 nT and -3 nT with no significant sustained southward 
periods. Minor enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible 
over the next 24 hours due to the influence of small equatorially 
located negative polarity coronal holes. Very Low solar activity 
is expected over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011000
      Cocos Island         1   11011000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           3   11112011
      Learmonth            1   01111000
      Culgoora             1   11011000
      Gingin               1   01002010
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Launceston           2   11012000
      Hobart               1   01012000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                3   12211011
      Mawson               6   23221201

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3221 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May     7    Quiet
23 May     5    Quiet
24 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the 
Australian region with possible Unsettled conditions for 22May 
and possible Active periods for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet 
conditions expected for 23May-24May

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours with moderate depressions 
observed for low-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere to 
occasional enhancements across all latitudes in the southern 
hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 
days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 May    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
23 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for 
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced 
MUF's to poor/disturbed conditions. MUF's are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    64300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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