[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 20 09:30:19 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 May. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar 
disk, AR2741, which will soon rotate to the far side of the sun. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 20-22 
May. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed 
in available coronagraph imagery for UT day 19 May. During the 
last 24 hours, solar wind speed was ranged between 350 km/s and 
420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was varying in the range 4-7 nT, 
gradually increasing on average, currently near 7 nT. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -5 nT, and 
has being predominantly southward during the last few hours of 
the UT day. For the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected 
to enhance slightly in response to small patchy equatorial coronal 
holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00100001
      Cocos Island         0   00110000
      Darwin               0   00100001
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            1   01110001
      Culgoora             0   00000001
      Gingin               0   00000011
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Launceston           0   00000100
      Hobart               0   00000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22210101
      Mawson               6   11210124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              3   0122 1010     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 May     8    Quiet
22 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 19 May. Mostly Quiet levels were 
observed in Antarctica. The global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels during the next 2 days 
(20-21 May) and at times may reach active levels. The forecasted 
disturbed conditions are in response to effects from small patchy 
equatorial coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours; moderate depressions 
were observed mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Mostly normal MUFs with possible minor to moderate depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions are expected for the next 3 
UT days, 20-22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during 
the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Similar HF propagation 
conditions in the Australian region are expected for the next 
3 UT days, 20-22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    43100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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