[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 22 10:30:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 21 March. Currently 
there are two spotted regions on the visible disc, AR2735 and 
AR2736. On 21 March the region AR2736 has produced 5 C-class 
flares, the largest one is a C5.6 flare, which peaked at 0308 
UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 UT days, 
22-24 March, with a small chance that the region AR2736 will 
produce isolated M-class flares. The CME which became visible 
in LASCO imagery at 20/1140 UT is expected to arrive at the Earth 
in the first half of the UT day 23 March. No other Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On 21 
March the solar wind speed was varying in the range 320-380 km/s, 
gradually decreasing. At the time of this report the solar wind 
speed is near 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1 nT 
and 4 nT and its north-south component (Bz) was fluctuating between 
+3 nT and -2 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. On 
UT day 22 March the solar wind speed is expected to remain near 
its background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           2   10101002
      Learmonth            2   22100000
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Gingin               1   11001000
      Canberra             0   1100000-
      Launceston           1   11111000
      Hobart               0   01001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   33320000
      Mawson               3   22120000
      Davis                4   23220000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0221 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar     6    Quiet
23 Mar    32    Active to Minor Storm
24 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for 23 Mar only. Quiet conditions were observed across 
the Australian region on 21 March and Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
were in Antarctica. For 22 March, the global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels. On 23 March the CME 
which became visible in LASCO imagery at 20/1140 UT is expected 
to arrive; this may result in an increase in geomagnetic activity 
up to Minor Storm levels with possible Major Storm periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 21 March. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next UT day, 22 March, 
with a chance of moderately depressed MUFs mostly at high latitudes. 
On 23-24 March the HF propagation conditions are expected to 
be degraded due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic 
activity up to Storm levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.     
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for 
Australian region on UT day 21 March. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next UT day, 22 March, with a chance of MUF 
depressions for Northern and Southern Australian regions. On 
23-24 March the HF propagation conditions are expected to be 
degraded due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity 
up to Storm levels. Mildly enhanced MUFs are expected for 23-24 
March as a consequence of the predicted geomagnetic storm.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    52800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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