[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 3 10:30:20 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 02 March. The 
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar 
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 
03-05 March. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 02 March, the solar wind speed 
remained at enhanced levels around 550 Km/s, gradually decreasing 
on average as coronal hole effects start waning. The total IMF 
(Bt) ranged from 3 nT to 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF 
(Bz) varied in the range +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to approach its background levels over the next two UT days 03-04 
March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22233331
      Cocos Island         6   22112320
      Darwin               9   22233321
      Townsville          11   22233332
      Learmonth           13   32234331
      Alice Springs       10   22233331
      Gingin              14   32234431
      Canberra            10   22233331
      Launceston          15   23334431
      Hobart              14   23234431    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    21   33346320
      Casey               20   34533333
      Mawson              29   54532354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18   4433 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar     7    Mainly Quiet
05 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 02 March. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 03 March 
as the coronal hole effects persist. Then mainly Quiet conditions 
on UT days 04-05 March as the coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
04 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 02 March. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -15
Mar      -12
Apr      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
04 Mar   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
05 Mar   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 02 March, MUFs were Mildly depressed to near 
monthly predicted levels over most Australian region as a consequence 
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and increased 
geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E layers were observed over some 
Australian ionosonde stations. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near 
predicted monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed due 
to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   333000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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