[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 1 10:30:16 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 28 February. The 
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar 
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 
01-03 March. SDO imagery observed a filament eruption in the 
SW quadrant around 27/1600UT. LASCO C2 imagery captured a CME 
starting 27/1748UT, it is not expected to be geoeffective. The 
solar wind speed observed during the last 24 hours was at strongly 
enhanced levels, near 580 km/s. This is in response to high speed 
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent negative polarity 
coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) started ~ 12 nT then decreased, 
currently around 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) 
underwent several southward excursions up to -10 nT but decreased 
to +/- 4nT after 1600UT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected 
to continue over the next two days as coronal hole effects persist.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Active 
with an isolated Minor Storm period.

Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   32234332
      Cocos Island        10   31123332
      Darwin              12   32234322
      Townsville          15   42234332
      Learmonth           18   42235333
      Alice Springs       17   32235333
      Gingin              21   42245433
      Canberra            15   32244332
      Launceston          21   42245343
      Hobart              19   32245342    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    42   33167543
      Casey               28   55534333
      Mawson              61   55434577

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   0011 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active with a possible Minor Storm 
                period
02 Mar    15    Quiet to Active
03 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 28 February 
and is current for 1 Mar only. Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions 
with an isolated Minor Storm period were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 28 February. Major Storm periods were observed 
in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed conditions were 
caused by HSS associated with the coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels on UT days 01-02 
March due coronal hole effects. A period of significant southward 
Bz component could produce a Minor Storm period over the next 
24 hours as the solar wind speed is strongly enhanced. Then mainly 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT day 03 March as the coronal 
hole effects begin to wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
02 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
03 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today, 
01 March as a consequence of the continued very low levels of 
ionising radiation from the Sun and disturbed geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -27
Feb      -12
Mar      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Mar   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
03 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 28 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Australian region. Cocos Island region 
experienced moderate enhancements during local night. Sporadic 
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations. 
Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed on UT days 
01-02 March due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun and current disturbed geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:   12.4 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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