[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jun 2019

Mon Jun 24 09:31:20 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for UT day 23 June. 
There are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar 
activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 24-26 June. There 
were no earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 23 June, the solar wind speed remained at 
nominal levels, currently ~ 330 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
mostly between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/- 3 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to become enhanced from late UT day today, 24 June 
due the influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00001000
      Cocos Island         0   00010000
      Darwin               0   00001000
      Learmonth            0   00001000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00001000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   00001000
      Hobart               0   00001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                0   01100000
      Mawson               6   00121214
      Davis                3   01231001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1221 0110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 23 June. Mostly Quiet levels 
were observed in Antarctica with isolated Unsettled to Active 
periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Unsettled 
levels with possible Active periods from late UT day today, 24 
June due to negative polarity coronal hole influences.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Jun    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly near 
predicted monthly values for all regions today, 23 June. Sporadic-E 
and Spread F occurrences were observed over some Australian ionosonde 
sites. For 24-26 June, MUFs are expected to range mostly near 
predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    39500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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