[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Jun 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 22 09:31:24 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
During this period the solar wind speed stayed mostly between 
340 and 390 km/s reaching a peak of around 415 km/s at 1311 UT, 
total IMF Bt varied mostly between 2.5 nT and 8.5 nT, the Bz 
component of IMF varied between +8 nT and -5 nT and the particle 
density varied between 4 ppcc and 20 ppcc. There are no sunspots 
on the solar disk visible from the earthside. Due to the effect 
of some fragmented negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind 
stream may get slightly strengthened at times on UT day 22 June. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the 
next three UT days (22 to 24 June).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112111
      Cocos Island         3   12111111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Learmonth            4   12112111
      Alice Springs        3   121120--
      Gingin               4   12012211
      Canberra             2   02012001
      Launceston           4   12122111
      Hobart               2   01012001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   01122000
      Casey                6   23212121
      Mawson               9   33222213
      Davis                8   23231122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1232 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     4    Quiet
23 Jun     4    Quiet
24 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed 
at quiet levels through UT day 21 June. Global geomagnetic activity 
may be expected to stay at quiet levels for the next 3 UT days 
(22 to 24 June).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
during UT day 21 June. Periods of strong sporadic E were also 
observed on low and high latitudes. MUFs may be expected to stay 
mostly around the predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days (22 to 24 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    -2    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    -2    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of 
minor to moderate enhancements during UT day 21 June. Periods 
of strong sporadic E were also observed in the northern and southern 
areas of the region. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be expected to 
stay around the predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days (22 to 24 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    33300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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