[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 16 09:31:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 15 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 16-18 June. There were no
earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 15 June, the solar wind speed decreased to nominal
levels ~ 360 Km/s as positive polarity coronal hole influences
waned. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2 nT and 6 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/- 3 nT, mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain near its background levels for most of the UT day 16 June.
The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced by the
end of UT day 16 June due the influence of a patchy weak negative
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01111000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 12111001
Townsville 3 12-21001
Learmonth 2 02111000
Alice Springs 2 02111001
Culgoora 1 01111001
Gingin 1 01111000
Canberra 1 01111000
Launceston 2 01121000
Hobart 2 01121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 2 12111000
Mawson 9 33322103
Davis 5 14221000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 8 3232 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 12 Quiet to Active
17 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
18 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 15 June. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet levels for most of the UT day 16 June as positive
polarity coronal hole waned, then may reach Unsettled to Active
levels late UT day 16 June due to negative polarity coronal hole
influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced at times
for all regions today, 15 June. Sporadic-E and Spread F occurrences
were observed over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 16-18
June, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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