[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 28 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 27 July.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 28-30
July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 27 July, the solar wind speed
was steady near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied
in the range 3-6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied between -5 and +2 nT, reaching a minimum of -5 nT (southward)
at 27/1700 UT and remained southward for few hours. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain mainly at background level for
the next three UT days (28-30 July), with mild enhancements possible
today (UT day 28 July) due to the passage of a small coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 00021120
Cocos Island 2 01120120
Darwin 3 10121121
Townsville 3 10121121
Learmonth 4 10131220
Alice Springs 2 01021120
Culgoora 2 01021120
Gingin 4 00020231
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 2 00021121
Hobart 1 00010120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 5 12120131
Mawson 19 21130165
Davis 22 12241165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 7 Quiet
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 27 July. Quiet to Active levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed
periods in the high latitude regions is due to the short-lived
period of southward Bz conditions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 UT
days, 28-30 July, with a chance of isolated unsettled conditions
today (UT 28 July) due to passage of a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 28-30 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 27 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected
to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next
three UT days, 28 to 30 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 28700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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