[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 26 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 25 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, Region 2733, located at N06W17 at 25/2300 UT. On UT day
25 January it produced several B-class flares; the largest one
was B6.9. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 26-28 January, with a chance of C-class flare.
No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 25 January, the solar wind speed was varying
in the range 550-620 km/s in response to high speed streams associated
with a recurrent positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. During
this period, the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 11 nT.
The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -4 nT
to +7 nT without significant southward Bz conditions. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near moderate to strong levels
on UT day 26 January as the effects of the coronal hole persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 22323311
Cocos Island 7 212223--
Darwin 9 222233--
Townsville 7 22223211
Learmonth 10 32323311
Alice Springs 9 222233--
Culgoora 8 22323211
Gingin 11 322233--
Canberra 9 223232--
Launceston 13 23334321
Hobart 9 22323311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 25 223364--
Casey 38 466333--
Mawson 21 444333--
Davis 24 34434452
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 3332 1234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 25 January. Unsettled to Major
Storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed
disturbed conditions are because the Earth was under the influence
of high speed solar wind streams associated with the equatorial
coronal hole. During the next 2 UT days, 26 and 27 January, the
global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
to Unsettled levels. Isolated Active levels are possible on 26
January because the solar wind speed is expected to remain high.
Then Quiet conditions are expected for UT day 28 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 25 January, due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and recent geomagnetic activity there
were MUF depressions over the Southern high latitude regions
compared to the monthly predicted levels. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 2 UT days, 26 and 27 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
28 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 25 January, MUFs were slightly depressed over
most Australian region as the aftermath of the recent geomagnetic
disturbance associated with the coronal hole. Near predicted
to depressed MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 26-28
January, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and recent disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 292000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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