[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 14 10:30:19 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 13th January. The 
sun is currently spotless and no earth directed CME's were visible 
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
was 355km/s at 00UT and increased slightly to 371km/s at 0111UT 
before declining to be ~320km/s at the time of this report. The 
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +1nT and 
-3nT over the UT day. Vsw is expected to remain at these nominal 
levels over the next 24 hours after which and increase is expected 
on 15Jan-16Jan due recurrent coronal hole activity. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100011
      Darwin               2   22000002
      Townsville           3   21110012
      Learmonth            2   11110002
      Alice Springs        1   12000001
      Culgoora             1   10100001
      Gingin               1   11010011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11110001
      Hobart               1   01110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
      Mawson               9   23210143
      Davis                6   22321012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     7    Quiet
15 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the AUS/NZ 
region for 13th January. Unsettled conditions observed for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the AUS/NZ and Antarctic 
regions for the next 24 hours. Possible Unsettled conditions 
for AUS/NZ regions for 15Jan-16Jan while Antarctic regions may 
experience isolated Active or Minor Storm periods due to recurrent 
coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs likely for Southern Hemisphere 
circuits over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values 
or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF degradations 
are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jan   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs depressions ranging from 10%-30% were observed 
for Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs were near 
predicted monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ 
and Antarctic regions. Notable Sporadic E layers observed at 
low to mid latitude stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted 
monthly values or mildly depressed due to continued low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    54300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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