[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 11 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 10th January. The
sun is currently spotless and no earth directed CME's were visible
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
ranged between 413km/s and 341km/s and is currently 393km/s at
the time of this report. The north-south component of IMF (Bz)
fluctuated between +3nT and -4nT over the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at ambient levels over the next 1-2
days with a possible slight enhancement on 12Jan-13Jan due to
minor coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11212001
Cocos Island 2 11211000
Darwin 4 12211102
Townsville 5 12312102
Learmonth 3 11212101
Alice Springs 3 11212002
Culgoora 3 11212001
Gingin 2 200-----
Canberra 0 01100000
Launceston 5 22222002
Hobart 3 11212001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Mawson 4 32212000
Davis 7 23322011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1002 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 7 Quiet
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the AUS/NZ
region for 10th January. Mostly Unsettled conditions for Antarctic
regions. Quiet conditions expected for the AUS/NZ regions for
the next 2 days with possible Unsettled periods for 12Jan-13Jan
while Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs likely for Southern Hemisphere
circuits over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values
or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF degradations
are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed for Equatorial and
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values for Northern AUS and Antarctic regions.
Notable Sporadic E layers observed from some low to high latitude
stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted monthly values
or mildly depressed due to continued low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 74800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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