[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 11 10:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 10th January. The 
sun is currently spotless and no earth directed CME's were visible 
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
ranged between 413km/s and 341km/s and is currently 393km/s at 
the time of this report. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) 
fluctuated between +3nT and -4nT over the UT day. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain at ambient levels over the next 1-2 
days with a possible slight enhancement on 12Jan-13Jan due to 
minor coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11212001
      Cocos Island         2   11211000
      Darwin               4   12211102
      Townsville           5   12312102
      Learmonth            3   11212101
      Alice Springs        3   11212002
      Culgoora             3   11212001
      Gingin               2   200-----
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Launceston           5   22222002
      Hobart               3   11212001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
      Mawson               4   32212000
      Davis                7   23322011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1002 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     5    Quiet
12 Jan     7    Quiet
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the AUS/NZ 
region for 10th January. Mostly Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Quiet conditions expected for the AUS/NZ regions for 
the next 2 days with possible Unsettled periods for 12Jan-13Jan 
while Antarctic regions may experience isolated Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs likely for Southern Hemisphere 
circuits over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values 
or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF degradations 
are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan   -31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed for Equatorial and 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs were near 
predicted monthly values for Northern AUS and Antarctic regions. 
Notable Sporadic E layers observed from some low to high latitude 
stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next 3 days with MUFs either near predicted monthly values 
or mildly depressed due to continued low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    74800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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