[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 9 10:30:23 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 January. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
three UT days (9-11 January). No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed observed
during the last 24 hours was mostly steady, near 430 km/s. These
weakly enhanced solar wind are in response to the waning effect
of a negative polarity coronal hole. During this period the total
IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 5 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -4 nT and +4 nT. The two day outlook
(UT day 9-10 January) is for the solar wind to gradually to decline
to its nominal levels as the effect of the coronal hole continues
to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Darwin 4 22111201
Townsville 6 22122212
Learmonth 5 22122211
Alice Springs 4 22121201
Culgoora 4 21121111
Gingin 4 21221111
Canberra 1 11111000
Launceston 6 32221111
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Mawson 12 23233224
Davis 14 34343122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1222 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 5 Quiet
10 Jan 5 Quiet
11 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the AUS/NZ region on UT day 8 January. Mostly Unsettled with
isolated Active periods for Antarctic regions. The sporadic geomagnetic
disturbance in the high latitude regions is possibly due to the
weakly enhanced solar wind speed associated with the coronal
hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet over
the next three UT days (9-11 January) as the effect of the coronal
hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some degraded HF conditions are possible for the next
3 UT days particularly over the Southern Hemisphere, compared
to the monthly predicted levels. The MUF degradations are a consequence
of the very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed for Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours.
MUFs were near predicted monthly value for Antarctic regions.
Strong Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region.
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next
2-3 days due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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