[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 21 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 22 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 21 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
22-24 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 21/1924 UT. On UT day 21 February,
the solar wind speed increased from around 350 km/s to 470 km/s,
currently around 450 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached a peak
of 12 nT at 21/0001 UT then began to decrease, currently around
5 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/-10 nT at the start of the UT day, reaching a minimum of -9
nT at 21/0512 UT. The Bz variation decreased to +/-5 nT after
21/0800 UT. On 22 February, the solar wind speed is expected
to continue to be moderately enhanced in response to the high
speed solar streams associated with the recurrent positive polarity
patchy coronal hole. The enhanced solar winds should begin to
wane on UT days 23-34 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22322212
Cocos Island 6 12322102
Darwin 7 22322211
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 8 22323212
Alice Springs 7 22322211
Culgoora 7 22322212
Gingin 10 32323213
Canberra 7 22322211
Launceston 11 23423222
Hobart 8 23322211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 11 12344111
Casey 19 35443113
Mawson 21 33333226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and Quiet to Active levels
were seen in Antarctica on UT day 21 February. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain at Quiet to Unsettled levels,
with possible isolated Active periods, on UT day 22 February
in response to moderately enhanced solar wind streams associated
with the recurrent positive polarity patchy coronal hole. Conditions
should decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 23-24
February as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Poor
COMMENT: On UT day 21 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Southern hemisphere, mostly during the local
day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in the
Southern hemisphere during the next three UT days, 22-24 February,
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 21 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. In the Northern
Australian region, moderate enhancements were observed during
the local night. In the Cocos Island and Niue Island regions,
mild to moderate depressions were observed during the local day.
The Cocos Island region also experienced a short period of moderate
enhancements in MUFs during the local day. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the region. During the next three UT days, 22-24
February, MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
levels. However, mild to moderate depressions are possible due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 12700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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