[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 15 10:31:30 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 14 Dec. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots are expected 
to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days, 15-17 Dec. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 
the last 24 hours,the solar wind began the UT day at nominal 
levels, around 350 Km/s, then gradually increased and is currently 
around 410 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3nT-8nT. The 
north-south component of IMF, Bz was mostly positive with a brief 
southward excursion up to -5 nT around 14/2200UT. This minor 
disturbance is most likely due to weak coronal hole effects. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its background levels 
to slightly enhanced for the next three days, 15-17 Dec due to 
weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101002
      Cocos Island         1   01101001
      Darwin               2   11101102
      Townsville           3   20101112
      Learmonth            2   11101012
      Alice Springs        2   10101002
      Gingin               1   01101011
      Canberra             1   10200001
      Hobart               2   11200002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                9   23421122
      Mawson               7   42111112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1110 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec    10    Quiet with possible isolated Unsettled periods.
16 Dec     5    Quiet
17 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 14 Dec was Quiet for the Australian 
region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active conditions. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet 
levels for the next three days, 15-17 Dec. Isolated Unsettled 
periods are possible today, 15 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 15-17 
Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec   -33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
16 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near 
predicted monthly values to moderately depressed ones on 14 Dec. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For the next 
three days,15-17 Dec, mildly depressed to near predicted monthly 
MUFs may be observed over the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    44500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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