[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 Nov 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 1 10:31:46 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 30 November. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 01-03 
December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 30 November, the solar wind speed 
was near its background to mildly elevated levels, varying in 
the range 350-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT 
and 7 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between 
-2 nT and 6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly 
near its background levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 
December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            5   22121122
      Alice Springs        5   22121122
      Gingin               4   21111122
      Canberra             6   22212122
      Hobart               5   12212122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   11102121
      Casey               13   34432122
      Mawson              13   42112125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1001 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec     5    Quiet
02 Dec     5    Quiet
03 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 30 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT 
days, 01-03 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 December. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted 
levels due to very low levels of solar ionising flux.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov   -36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -20
Nov      -16
Dec      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near 
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones 
on UT day 30 November. The depressions were due to very low levels 
of solar ionising flux. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over 
all the sites. For the next three UT days, 01-03 December, mildly 
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the 
Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5e+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    43400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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