[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 26 09:31:38 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 25 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 25 August, the solar wind speed was near its
background level, around 340 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) remained
below 4 nT during 25 August. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +/-3nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain near its background level for most of today
(UT day 26 August). Then from late on UT day 26 August, the solar
wind is expected to become enhanced due to high speed solar wind
streams associated with a recurrent negative polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11210101
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11210001
Townsville 3 11210112
Learmonth 2 11210100
Alice Springs 2 11210001
Gingin 2 11210101
Canberra 2 11210001
Launceston 3 11211101
Hobart 2 11110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22220102
Mawson 11 23310044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2212 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
Active period.
27 Aug 16 Quiet to Active
28 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 25 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for most UT day 26 August.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled
to Active levels from late on UT day 26 August due to the forecast
arrival of high speed streams from coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 25 August. Slight depressions were
observed at times across Northern Australian. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days 26-28
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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