[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 2 10:30:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on UT day 01 April, with no flares. 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible 
solar disk, Region 2737 located near N12E31 at 01/2300 UT. This 
region has grown slightly over the last 24 hours. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 02-04 
April, with a remote chance for C-class flares. No other Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
On UT day 01 April, the solar wind speed ranged between 380 km/s 
and 430 km/s. The mildly elevated solar wind speed was caused 
by a negative polarity coronal hole. During the last 24 hours, 
the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 8 nT. The north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) ranged between +2 nT and -6 nT, and was 
predominately southward from 01/0430 UT to 01/1400 UT. The two 
day outlook (UT days 02-03 April) is for the solar wind to remain 
at slightly elevated levels in response to the effects from the 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11143210
      Cocos Island         4   11132100
      Darwin               5   10142100
      Townsville           7   11242210
      Learmonth            9   11153100
      Alice Springs        9   11153200
      Culgoora             8   21143210
      Gingin               7   11143210
      Canberra             6   10143200
      Launceston          10   11253210
      Hobart               8   11243210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    27   11474310
      Casey               15   44433111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2430 3121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 01 April. Unsettled to Active 
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The observed disturbed 
conditions are a combined effect of the Earth currently being 
under the influence of slightly enhanced solar wind streams emanating 
from a negative polarity coronal hole and the prolonged period 
of Southward IMF Bz condition. During the next 2 UT days, 02-03 
April, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels and at times may reach Active levels 
due to the effects of the coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 1 April there were mild MUF depressions over 
the Southern high latitude regions as compared to the monthly 
predicted levels. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 
the next 2 UT days, 02-03 April, with occasional MUF depressions 
in the high latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for 
the Australian region on UT day 01 April. Mild depressions were 
observed over Northern Australian region during local day. Sporadic 
E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde station. Slightly 
degraded to near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the 
next three UT days 02-04 April.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    79400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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