[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 30 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three UT days (30 October - 1 November). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to
29/1148 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours was
mostly steady, near the nominal level of 330 km/s. During this
time, IMF Bt varied between 2 nT and 6 nT, and Bz fluctuated
between +3/-1 nT. The two day outlook (30 - 31 October) is for
the solar winds to enhance weakly in response to the anticipated
arrival of wind streams from a small low latitude coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 01101001
Cocos Island 0 00001000
Darwin 2 01101012
Learmonth 1 01110101
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Culgoora 1 00101011
Gingin 0 00100001
Canberra 1 01101001
Launceston 2 01201111
Hobart 1 01101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 5 23210012
Mawson 4 32100121
Davis 6 13211031
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 5 Quiet
01 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels on UT day 29
October across the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay at Quiet levels today (UT day 30
October) with the possibility of some unsettled periods due to
the possible effect from the small low latitude coronal hole,
soon reaching geoeffective location the solar disk. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected to continue from October 31.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the Southern
mid-latitude and Northern mid-to-high latitude regions on UT
day 29 October. MUF depressions were observed over the dayside
equatorial regions and Southern high-latitude regions. Similar
HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 30 October. Very
low levels of ionisation radiation from the Sun seems to be the
main reason for these MUF depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct -30 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 28 October
and is current for 29-31 Oct. MUFs over the Australian regions
were mainly from near monthly predicted levels to depressed by
around 35% on UT day 29 October. Very low levels of ionisation
radiation from the Sun seems to be the main reason for these
MUF depressions. Minor depressions to near monthly predicted
MUFs are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
(UT days 30 October - 1 November).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 19000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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