[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 27 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earth side. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to 26/1442
UT. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 350 km/s
to 410 km/s during the interval 0000 UT and 1400 UT and then
stayed around 410 km/s during the rest of the UT day. Through
UT day 26 October, IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 and 7 nT, Bz
fluctuated mostly between +/-6 nT and the particle density varied
mostly between 4 and 10 ppcc. Particle density also showed some
high values up to 17 ppcc between the time interval 0200 UT and
0600 UT. The effect of a positive polarity coronal hole in the
northern hemisphere may result in periods of slight strengthening
to the solar wind stream from UT day 29 October. Solar activity
is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next three days
(27 to 29 October, UT days).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12121122
Cocos Island 3 11121111
Darwin 5 12122122
Townsville 4 121-----
Learmonth 5 11222112
Alice Springs 5 22121122
Culgoora 5 12221122
Gingin 5 21121122
Canberra 4 11121122
Launceston 6 22221122
Hobart 5 12221122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01121011
Casey 13 34332123
Mawson 26 53122256
Davis 11 34222223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 5 Quiet
29 Oct 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT
day 26 October across the Australian region. Some periods of
Unsettled and Active levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay at Quiet levels on UT days 27 and 28 October and may
rise to Unsettled levels on 29 October due to the possible effect
of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly from near monthly predicted levels
to depressed by around 30% on UT day 26 October. Very low levels
of ionisation radiation from the Sun seems to be the main reason
for these MUF depressions. Minor to moderate degradations in
HF conditions and MUF depressions may be expected for the next
three days (UT days 27 to 29 October).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mainly from near
monthly predicted levels to depressed by around 30% on UT day
26 October. Very low levels of ionisation radiation from the
Sun seems to be the main reason for these MUF depressions. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions
in the Aus/NZ regions may be expected for the next three days
(UT days 27 to 29 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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