[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 18 issued 2342 UT on 04 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 5 09:42:51 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 4 October,
with no solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk, Region 2723 currently located at S08W66.
For the next 3 UT days, 5-7 October, solar activity is expected
to be at Very Low levels with a remote chance for C-class flares.
A solar filament erupting from the southwest limb starting at
03/2000 UT has triggered a CME. Based on the location of the
filament, it is unlikely to affect earth. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 500 km/s at beginning of the UT day
to 400 km/s by the end of the UT day. This declining trend of
the solar wind speed is an indication that the current equatorial
coronal hole effects are waning. The IMF Bt was mostly steady
near 5 nT and the IMF Bz varied between +4/-4 nT on UT day, 4
October. The outlook for next two UT days (5-6 October) is for
the solar wind to be mostly near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11002311
Darwin 4 21102211
Townsville 5 21102312
Learmonth 4 20002311
Alice Springs 3 10002300
Culgoora 4 11002311
Gingin 3 10002311
Canberra 3 10002311
Launceston 5 11102321
Hobart 3 11002310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01002200
Casey 8 33311211
Mawson 9 22201234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet on UT day 4
October across the Australian region, with an isolated 3-hour
period of Unsettled conditions. The Antarctic region experienced
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions . The outlook for the
UT days 5 and 6 October is for the geomagnetic conditions to
be Quiet and occasionally may reach Unsettled levels. On UT day
7 October, conditions may reach active levels associated with
a corotation interaction region (CIR) from an approaching large
positive polarity coronal.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
4 October, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the equatorial
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day
5 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 04 Oct.
The highest MUF depression of 20% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the North Australian regions during the local day.
The two day outlook (UT day 05-06 Oct) is for the MUFs to generally
trend at near monthly predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 48000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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