[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 23 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 22 
Nov. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the 
next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar wind 
speed ranged between 350km/s and 420km/s. The total IMF (Bt)stayed 
mostly ~ 5nT. The north south component of IMF (Bz) varied between 
+/-4nT, mostly positive. Solar wind parameters are expected to 
be at nominal levels for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10120110
      Cocos Island         1   00110110
      Darwin               2   10120101
      Townsville           3   10221111
      Learmonth            3   21120110
      Alice Springs        1   00120001
      Culgoora             2   11120100
      Gingin               2   10120110
      Canberra             0   00110000
      Launceston           3   11221110
      Hobart               1   10110100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                7   23321121
      Mawson               8   42222112
      Davis                7   23322111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1311 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     7    Quiet
24 Nov     5    Quiet
25 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region for 22 Nov with Unsettled to Active periods for Antarctic 
region. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in the 
Australian region for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
25 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed 
MUFs may be observed during the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
24 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
25 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs ranged from minor depressions to near predicted 
monthly values during 22 Nov. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    64900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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