[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 20 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day of 19 Nov.
Region 2727 (N01W66) continued to decrease in size. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. No earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed ranged between 300km/s and 350km/s and is currently
~~310km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 7 to 2 nT. The north
south component of IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +/-5nT with
no sustained southward excursions. Slightly enhanced solar wind
speed is expected over the next 3 days due to the influence of
a fragmented negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11101211
Cocos Island 1 11100110
Darwin 3 21111201
Townsville 3 11111211
Alice Springs 2 10101201
Culgoora 3 11101211
Canberra 1 00100200
Launceston 3 11201211
Hobart 3 11101211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11100210
Mawson 12 33201225
Davis 9 24322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for 19 Nov with isolated Unsettled to Active periods for
Antarctic regions over the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
with a chance of Active periods for high latitudes expected for
the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFS depressions may occur for the
next 2-3 days due to anticipated weak geomagnetic activity and
low EUV levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov -35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov -35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions across all latitude
bands on UT day 19 Nov. Similar levels of depressed ionospheric
support expected for the next 3 days due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and anticipated weak
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 12.1 p/cc Temp: 23600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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