[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 12 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 11 November.
There is currently one sunspot group on the the solar disc with
four spots (N05E14). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO imagery up to 11/2148UT. Solar activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next three days. Over the last
24 hours the solar wind remained elevated ranging from 530 to
625 km/s and is currently near 590 km/s. Over the same period
the total IMF (Bt) ranged from 7 to 4 nT and is currently near
5 nT. Bz varied between +/-5 nT. No prolong periods of Bz observed
and as a result reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field
was minimal. Expect the solar wind stream to gradually decline
to nominal levels over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22212122
Townsville 6 22212122
Alice Springs 4 12202022
Launceston 7 23212122
Hobart 6 22212122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Mawson 25 53422263
Davis 20 43432253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1114 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region ranged
from Quiet to Unsettled levels for the UT day, 11 November. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain at Quiet to Unsettled levels today
and tomorrow with isolated periods of Active levels possible
at higher latitudes if the IMF Bz component turns negative for a
prolonged period. Mostly Quiet levels expected on 14 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern
Hemisphere with isolated pockets of depressions at lower latitudes.
The Southern Hemisphere (SH) varied from near predicted MUF values
to moderate depressions, particularly around local noon.
Expect similar conditions to prevail for UT day, 12 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly Depressed by 15% with
pockets of near predicted values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
13 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
14 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. The Australian and Antarctic regions
varied during the UT day from near predicted values to moderate
depressions, particularly around local noon time hours. Expect
this trend to continue over the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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