[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 2 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 1 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three UT days (2 - 4 November). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to
01/2024 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours fluctuated
between 320 km/s and 360 km/s. The mildly fluctuations in solar
wind speed are caused by the passage of a small low latitude
coronal hole. During the last 24 hours, IMF Bt varied mostly
between 1 nT and 6 nT, and IMF Bz fluctuated between +4/-4 nT.
The outlook for today (2 November) is for the solar winds to
remain near the nominal levels. From around mid UT day 3 November,
the solar wind is expected to enhance again as another large
recurrent equatorial coronal is expected to reach geoeffective
location on the solar disk. The approaching coronal hole has
produced solar winds reaching up to 650 km/s at the location
of STEREO-A. Similar effects are expected at Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Cocos Island 3 11220110
Darwin 4 22220111
Townsville 5 22221211
Learmonth 5 11221212
Alice Springs 4 12220102
Culgoora 4 12121111
Gingin 4 11121112
Canberra 4 11221111
Launceston 6 22231112
Hobart 4 12221102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 11341000
Casey 11 34421111
Mawson 7 22222113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 25 Active
04 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity were at Quiet levels on UT day
1 November across the Australian region. Some mild Unsettled
levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Antarctic
regions. The outlook for today (2 November) is for the geomagnetic
activity to stay at mostly Quiet levels. On late UT day 03 Nov,
geomagnetic condition is expected to reach Active levels and
occasionally to minor storm levels. These forecasted disturbed
conditions are in response to the corotation interaction region
(CIR) associated with an approaching large equatorial coronal
hole. Mostly Unsettled to Active conditions are expected on UT
day 04 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
03 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the mid
and high latitude regions on UT day 1 November. MUF depressions
were observed over the dayside equatorial regions. Similar HF
conditions are expected for today, UT day 2 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over
Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 1 November. The
highest MUF depression of 15% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Niue island Region. Similar MUFs are expected
for today (UT day 02 Nov). MUFs are expected to return to mostly
near monthly predicted values on UT day 03 Nov in response to
a geomagnetic disturbance associated with an approaching coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 24300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list