[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 19 09:30:40 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 May. 
No sunspots observed on the visible solar disc. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery up till 18/1736UT. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 470 to 420 km/s during the 
last 24 hours and is currently 440 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 
2-6 nT and its Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Expect the 
solar wind to remain slightly elevated during the UT day, 19 
May, due to the influence of the weak coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11012210
      Cocos Island         2   11101200
      Darwin               3   11012210
      Townsville           5   22112211
      Learmonth            5   21112310
      Alice Springs        2   11012200
      Culgoora             2   11012200
      Gingin               5   21113210
      Canberra             2   10012200
      Launceston           5   11013310
      Hobart               4   11013300    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   10024200
      Casey                7   33212201
      Mawson              23   55322225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2223 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     6    Quiet to Unsettled
20 May     4    Quiet
21 May     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed during 
the UT day, 18 May. Expect Mostly Quiet conditions for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May     1    Near predicted monthly values
20 May     1    Near predicted monthly values
21 May     1    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values for 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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