[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 May 18 issued 2332 UT on 16 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 17 09:32:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 16 May.
No sunspots observed on the visible solar disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO C2 imagery up till 16/1638UT.
The solar wind speed ranged between 360 to 305 km/s during the
last 24 hours and is currently 350 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between
2-9 nT and its Bz component was between +4/-6 nT. Current DSCOVR
solar wind/IMF data shows signs of the recurrent coronal hole
becoming geoeffective, later than anticipated based on SDO 193
Angstrom imagery and STEREO data. Expect solar wind speed to
steadily increase today, 17 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 1 00001021
Cocos Island 2 01001021
Darwin 2 11101021
Townsville 2 11101021
Learmonth 2 00011021
Alice Springs 2 00101021
Gingin 1 00000021
Canberra 0 00000020
Launceston 1 00001021
Hobart 0 00000020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 4 12100132
Mawson 11 21001254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1110 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 20 Active
18 May 12 Unsettled
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 16-17 May. Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed
on the UT day, 16 May. Expect Unsettle to Active conditions today,
17 May, with a possibility of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes
due to arrival of high speed solar wind stream. The following
two days are expected to be Unsettled with a possibility of isolated
cases of Active levels at higher latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal to Fair HF conditions for the next
three days due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
18 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values today,
17 May. The following two days (18-19 May) expect mostly near
predicted MUFs with a possibility of minor depressions at higher
latitudes such as Tasmania.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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