[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 31 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on UT day 30 March. Active Region
2703(S08E650) produced several flares. The largest flare, C4,
peaked at 0804UT and was accompanied by a CME, which became visible
in STEREO imagery at 0848UT. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
There were no other earthward directed CMEs observed on 30 March
in the available imagery. Very Low to Low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 31 March-02
April. The solar wind speed on UT day 30 March was slightly enhanced,
varying in the range 370-450 km/s. During the UT day 30 March,
the IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and 8 nT and its Bz component
was mostly between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to
gradually decrease over the next 24-48 hours as coronal influence
wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Cocos Island 3 21012110
Darwin 4 21112111
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 3 11112111
Alice Springs 4 22112011
Canberra 2 11111001
Launceston 4 12112111
Hobart 3 12111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 8 33322101
Mawson 7 33222111
Davis 7 23232110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0012 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 7 Quiet
02 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
may be observed today, 31 March due to slightly elevated solar
wind speeds under the influence of a northern hemisphere located
positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 01-02 April as coronal hole effects are expected to diminish
during this time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Australian region
for 30 March. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E throughout
the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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